Author: UPFINA

The jobless claims report from the week of September 12th was important for a few reasons. Firstly, it was the BLS survey week for the September report. Secondly,

The Fed did exactly what most expected on Wednesday as it didn’t hike rates and called for no hikes through 2023 based on the median FOMC member’s estimate

Redbook same store sales growth fell for the 2nd straight week in the week of September 12th. As you can see from the chart below, it fell from

On Wednesday, the Fed will give us its decision on rates along with an updated look at its economic projections. It will be interesting to see where the

Inflation is still very low. CPI in August was 1.3% which was up from 1%. Core CPI was up from 1.6% to 1.7% which put it slightly closer

The jobless claims report from the week of September 5th was a mixed bag. There are a few twists with this data update which must be noted or

The latest Redbook same store sales growth reading was bad as it fell from 4.6% to -0.1% in the week of September 5th. It’s always hard to figure

In August, the small business optimism index increased from 98.8 to 100.2 which beat estimates for 98.9. It’s no surprise small business confidence crept up. What is a

We are getting more details on how the consumer was impacted by the decline in unemployment benefits via non-traditional data points. Normally, waiting until the retail sales report

The August BLS labor report bested the ADP report by a lot just like it has since the recovery started. As you can see from the chart below,

It appears the labor market is steadily improving despite fears of a slowdown. Keep in mind, it’s very scary to look at the current picture, but rate of

The August ADP report showed 428,000 private sector jobs added which missed estimates for 900,000. Some investors wondered why this didn’t cause stocks to fall. Stocks probably ignored

Everyone was wondering if retail sales growth would crash once the $600 in weekly unemployment checks stopped going out in August. The fears of a big decline in

We are making an adjustment to our economic thesis based on the latest data. We’ve been saying the decline in unemployment benefits hurt consumers, but they planned ahead

One of the biggest questions in economics is determining when the economy will be able to survive on its own without fiscal stimulus. That’s important because getting legislation

Let’s be clear, at Powell’s Jackson Hole speech he didn’t deliver anything groundbreaking. However, it doesn’t matter if the Fed’s policy won’t change much. It matters how it

The temporary elimination of the $600 in weekly jobless benefits was the biggest negative catalyst for the consumer since COVID-19. We say temporary because states are starting to

2020’s recession was/is weird. The current economy is unlike any other recovery we have seen. The housing market is exploding. It has caused the homebuilder ETF to rise

It was very difficult to determine how quickly states would start giving out the $300 or $400 in federal weekly unemployment benefits. So far, Arizona is the only

It’s always difficult to tell what’s priced in. Sometimes markets move on the obvious. Sometimes the action is so bizarre, there’s nothing you can make of it other

Initial jobless claims in the week of August 15th rose from 971,000 to 1.016 million on a seasonally adjusted basis. The main question is if this is a

The Fed Minutes are released 3 weeks after meetings, so they usually don’t have large impacts on markets. However, this July’s Minutes caused stocks to sell off. Stocks

Everyone following the economy is studying how the lack of unemployment benefits will affect consumers. Only 11 states have been approved for $300 in weekly benefits (South Dakota

Even though the labor market was tight at the end of the last expansion and credit card debt wasn’t nearly as big of an issue as it was

Even though there was a 2nd spike in COVID-19 cases in July, retail sales growth was strong. The one major weak point was autos and auto parts. Without