The jobless claims report from the week of September 12th was important for a few reasons. Firstly, it was the BLS survey week for the September report. Secondly,
The Fed did exactly what most expected on Wednesday as it didn’t hike rates and called for no hikes through 2023 based on the median FOMC member’s estimate
On Wednesday, the Fed will give us its decision on rates along with an updated look at its economic projections. It will be interesting to see where the
In August, the small business optimism index increased from 98.8 to 100.2 which beat estimates for 98.9. It’s no surprise small business confidence crept up. What is a
We are getting more details on how the consumer was impacted by the decline in unemployment benefits via non-traditional data points. Normally, waiting until the retail sales report
It appears the labor market is steadily improving despite fears of a slowdown. Keep in mind, it’s very scary to look at the current picture, but rate of
The August ADP report showed 428,000 private sector jobs added which missed estimates for 900,000. Some investors wondered why this didn’t cause stocks to fall. Stocks probably ignored
Everyone was wondering if retail sales growth would crash once the $600 in weekly unemployment checks stopped going out in August. The fears of a big decline in
We are making an adjustment to our economic thesis based on the latest data. We’ve been saying the decline in unemployment benefits hurt consumers, but they planned ahead
One of the biggest questions in economics is determining when the economy will be able to survive on its own without fiscal stimulus. That’s important because getting legislation
Since the start of the worldwide pandemic the U.S. government has poured trillions of dollars into the battered economy, hoping to avoid another depression. While this has kept
Let’s be clear, at Powell’s Jackson Hole speech he didn’t deliver anything groundbreaking. However, it doesn’t matter if the Fed’s policy won’t change much. It matters how it
The temporary elimination of the $600 in weekly jobless benefits was the biggest negative catalyst for the consumer since COVID-19. We say temporary because states are starting to
2020’s recession was/is weird. The current economy is unlike any other recovery we have seen. The housing market is exploding. It has caused the homebuilder ETF to rise
It was very difficult to determine how quickly states would start giving out the $300 or $400 in federal weekly unemployment benefits. So far, Arizona is the only
It’s always difficult to tell what’s priced in. Sometimes markets move on the obvious. Sometimes the action is so bizarre, there’s nothing you can make of it other
The Fed Minutes are released 3 weeks after meetings, so they usually don’t have large impacts on markets. However, this July’s Minutes caused stocks to sell off. Stocks
Everyone following the economy is studying how the lack of unemployment benefits will affect consumers. Only 11 states have been approved for $300 in weekly benefits (South Dakota
