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We are getting more details on how the consumer was impacted by the decline in unemployment benefits via non-traditional data points. Normally, waiting until the retail sales report comes out isn’t an issue, but conditions have changed rapidly this year….
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The August BLS labor report bested the ADP report by a lot just like it has since the recovery started. As you can see from the chart below, there were 1.371 million jobs added which was less than last month…
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It appears the labor market is steadily improving despite fears of a slowdown. Keep in mind, it’s very scary to look at the current picture, but rate of change is what matters. Furthermore, stocks actually do better when the unemployment…
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The August ADP report showed 428,000 private sector jobs added which missed estimates for 900,000. Some investors wondered why this didn’t cause stocks to fall. Stocks probably ignored this report because it was wildly too pessimistic in July. The initial…
Continue reading Everyone was wondering if retail sales growth would crash once the $600 in weekly unemployment checks stopped going out in August. The fears of a big decline in consumer spending were too pessimistic. More people are getting jobs. The people…
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We are making an adjustment to our economic thesis based on the latest data. We’ve been saying the decline in unemployment benefits hurt consumers, but they planned ahead which is why the initial impact on spending wasn’t severe. We’re changing…
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One of the biggest questions in economics is determining when the economy will be able to survive on its own without fiscal stimulus. That’s important because getting legislation passed has been tough. If the GOP wins the Senate, it will…
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Since the start of the worldwide pandemic the U.S. government has poured trillions of dollars into the battered economy, hoping to avoid another depression. While this has kept many businesses across the country alive, it has sparked a fear about…
Continue reading Let’s be clear, at Powell’s Jackson Hole speech he didn’t deliver anything groundbreaking. However, it doesn’t matter if the Fed’s policy won’t change much. It matters how it impacts the market. The Fed hardly utilized its corporate bond buying program…
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The temporary elimination of the $600 in weekly jobless benefits was the biggest negative catalyst for the consumer since COVID-19. We say temporary because states are starting to pay the unemployed $300 to $400 extra from the federal government via…
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