We are getting more details on how the consumer was impacted by the decline in unemployment benefits via non-traditional data points. Normally, waiting until the retail sales report
It appears the labor market is steadily improving despite fears of a slowdown. Keep in mind, it’s very scary to look at the current picture, but rate of
The August ADP report showed 428,000 private sector jobs added which missed estimates for 900,000. Some investors wondered why this didn’t cause stocks to fall. Stocks probably ignored
Everyone was wondering if retail sales growth would crash once the $600 in weekly unemployment checks stopped going out in August. The fears of a big decline in
We are making an adjustment to our economic thesis based on the latest data. We’ve been saying the decline in unemployment benefits hurt consumers, but they planned ahead
One of the biggest questions in economics is determining when the economy will be able to survive on its own without fiscal stimulus. That’s important because getting legislation
Since the start of the worldwide pandemic the U.S. government has poured trillions of dollars into the battered economy, hoping to avoid another depression. While this has kept
Let’s be clear, at Powell’s Jackson Hole speech he didn’t deliver anything groundbreaking. However, it doesn’t matter if the Fed’s policy won’t change much. It matters how it
The temporary elimination of the $600 in weekly jobless benefits was the biggest negative catalyst for the consumer since COVID-19. We say temporary because states are starting to
2020’s recession was/is weird. The current economy is unlike any other recovery we have seen. The housing market is exploding. It has caused the homebuilder ETF to rise
It was very difficult to determine how quickly states would start giving out the $300 or $400 in federal weekly unemployment benefits. So far, Arizona is the only
It’s always difficult to tell what’s priced in. Sometimes markets move on the obvious. Sometimes the action is so bizarre, there’s nothing you can make of it other
There are several strategies that investors can choose from, such as growth investing, value investing, and dividend investing. But investors can also combine multiple strategies to achieve the
The Fed Minutes are released 3 weeks after meetings, so they usually don’t have large impacts on markets. However, this July’s Minutes caused stocks to sell off. Stocks
Everyone following the economy is studying how the lack of unemployment benefits will affect consumers. Only 11 states have been approved for $300 in weekly benefits (South Dakota
Even though there was a 2nd spike in COVID-19 cases in July, retail sales growth was strong. The one major weak point was autos and auto parts. Without
We think by now you are aware this has been an unusual recession. We mentioned in a previous article that in the previous cycle many were worried about
What if there was a way to cut through the massive amount of data we face when analyzing stocks? There is more data available to individual investors than
Historically, the only time the market has viewed good economic news as bad news is when the Fed was expected to tighten monetary policy. This is a unique
The stock market is irrational at the best of times. It cannot even claim to be a reflection of the economy’s health at this point. The derivative market
